The nation’s “skilful management of the pandemic” has been cited as a reason for its growth in analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Re
The nation’s “skilful management of the pandemic” has been cited as a reason for its growth in analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). It means China will become the largest economy five years earlier than previously predicted.
The UK-based think tank said China would grow by two percent in 2020 making it the only major global economy to expand.
The CEBR economic league table is released on Boxing Day annually.
The first cases of COVID-19 were reported in Wuhan in December 2019.
There have been more than 86,000 cases in China with 4,634 deaths.
The USA has experienced 18.8million cases and 330,000 deaths.
Worldwide, there have been 80.2million cases and 1.76million deaths.
The CEBR report, published on Saturday, said: “For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China.
“The Covid-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China’s favour.”
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The report added: “It is believed that the Covid-19 pandemic originated in Wuhan in China and certainly this was where it first reached public prominence.
“The Chinese authorities reacted vigorously and as a result the Chinese economy has sustained less economic damage than any other major economy.
“China is estimated to be likely to have positive GDP growth of two percent in 2020, whereas other major economies are expected to have negative growth for the year.
“The skilful management of the pandemic and the hits to long term growth in the West mean that China’s relative economic performance has improved.
“We now think that the Chinese economy in dollar terms will overtake the US economy in 2028, a full five years earlier than we thought last year.”
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The US, predicted to have “a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021”, will grow by about 1.9 percent annually from 2022 to 2024.
But researchers said it will slow to 1.6 percent in the years after.
China’s average economic growth annually from 2021 to 2025 is forecast at 5.7 percent, but will slow to 4.5 percent per year from 2026-30, the report said.
Annual growth rate in the five years up to 2035 is expected to be 3.9 percent.
China’s share of the world economy has seen a rise from 3.6 percent in the year 2000 to 17.8 percent in 2020, the yearly CEBR report reveals.
India is forecast to become the third largest economy in the world by 2030.
The research said India will pass Germany in terms of GDP by 2027 – and Japan three years later.
It also predicts Turkey will fall in the World Economic League Table from being the 17th biggest economy to 22nd in 2021.
Cases of the new coronavirus mutation have been identified in the UK, Canada, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden and France.