New poll: Majority of Scots now in favour of independence

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New poll: Majority of Scots now in favour of independence

Majority of Scots now in favour of independence as new poll backs splitting from the UK by 54 per cent to 46 per centLatest poll gives

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Majority of Scots now in favour of independence as new poll backs splitting from the UK by 54 per cent to 46 per cent

  • Latest poll gives support for independence an eight point lead over status quo
  • Support for split from UK has been ahead of staying for more than six months
  • Polling expert John Curtice said six month average puts Yes on 51 and No on 49 

A majority of Scots are in favour of Scottish independence, according to a new poll, with support for splitting from the UK now having been ahead for six months – the longest period ever recorded. 

The Scottish independence referendum in 2014 resulted in 55 per cent voting ‘No’ to independence and 45 per cent voting ‘Yes’. 

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has called for a second vote to take place before the end of this year. 

But Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused to budge on the issue, with the UK Government declining to grant permission for another ballot. 

A Panelbase poll published in the Sunday Times today put support for a ‘Yes’ vote in an independence referendum at 54 per cent and support for ‘No’ at 46 per cent. 

Meanwhile, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said support for independence has now nudged ahead of support for the Union over a sustained period of surveys. 

Nicola Sturgeon has called on the UK Government to agree to holding a second referendum on Scottish independence before the end of 2020

Nicola Sturgeon has called on the UK Government to agree to holding a second referendum on Scottish independence before the end of 2020 

But Boris Johnson is adamant he will not agree to holding a re-run of the ballot held in 2014

But Boris Johnson is adamant he will not agree to holding a re-run of the ballot held in 2014

Sir John said the average of the Panelbase polls over the last six months, including the latest one, put ‘Yes’ on 51 per cent and ‘No’ on 49 per cent.

He said it is the first time in polling history that ‘Yes’ had been ahead for such a long period.

In an article for the Sunday Times, Sir John said: ‘Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak.

‘Our latest poll from Panelbase confirms other recent polling that has suggested those who intend to vote Yes in a second independence referendum have nudged ahead.

‘Support for the SNP is also at a record high. Panelbase’s polls conducted over the past six months, including today’s, have on average put “Yes” on 51 per cent and “No” on 49 per cent.

‘This is the first time in polling history that “Yes” has been ahead over such a sustained period.

‘Support for independence is up three points on that recorded on average last year – and six points on 2018.’ 

He said those who had switched from ‘No’ to ‘Yes’ were among people who voted both Remain and Leave in the EU referendum. 

The latest survey also found that the Scottish public appeared to support the Scottish Government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis much more than that of the UK Government.

The poll of 1,026 voters in Scotland, conducted between Tuesday and Friday last week, found strong backing for Ms Sturgeon’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, with the First Minister’s approval rating on the issue at 60 points.

However, Boris Johnson’s approval rating on the crisis was at minus 39 points. 

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: ‘The majority of polls since the Westminster election have had “Yes” in the lead – majority support for independence is now the established position of the people of Scotland.

‘On the basis of this sustained record support, it’s impossible for the UK Government to deny Scotland a choice over its future.’

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