A surge of heat is set to swamp Britain in the first week of October, sending thermometers to dizzying 25C heights – hailing an Indian summer.
Meteorological autumn began on September 23 – but it appears the seasons are lagging behind, as weather maps show no sign of a fall in temperatures.
Early to mid-20C seems to be the theme for early October – but Jim Dale, a meteorologist for British Weather Services, said conditions look optimal for such weather to last until at least mid-month.
Speaking to Express.co.uk, he said: “I think we can fairly call this an Indian Summer incoming – it will be peaking this time next week, but it will still be pretty good to the halfway stage of October. About 25C tops next Sunday is my call.”
The Met Office defines the term Indian summer as a period of prolonged hot weather occurring in October or November.
GFS weather charts turn red on Friday, October 6 – with the south west of England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland getting the first wave of intense heat sweeping in.
By Saturday, all four home nations will be under the red heat dome which is set to last for the remainder of the weekend.
When asked what was causing a last minute summer burst, Mr Dale added: “Two words: climate change, and it’s not just the UK but much of Europe too, and large parts of the US.
“There is also the El Niño factor stepping up. I’m now thinking there is little to stop 2023 being the hottest year globally since records began and likely well before.”
What is El Nino and how is it affecting us?
El Niño is a term used to define the warming of the ocean surface temperature. According to the Met Office, an El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average.
“El Niño is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer than average weather,” it says. The World Meteorological Organization declared the onset of El Niño conditions back in July – but impacts can take months to affect the UK’s weather.
El Niño can also contribute to colder winters and was blamed as one of the reasons the country endured the chaotic Beast from the East back in 2018.
This week’s weather and beyond
Conditions will remain mostly settled and mild for much of the UK this week, before the hot surge comes in towards the end of it. Maps show the north western coast of Scotland getting some heavier rain from Wednesday.
The Met Office’s long-range forecast from October 6 to October 15 says: “A split in conditions is likely to develop across the UK early in the period.
“Further rain is expected in north-western areas, which could turn heavy, particularly over higher, westwards-facing ground and strong winds are also possible in these areas.
“Southern areas, in contrast, are likely to remain much drier with light winds and some clear spells, which could lead to some overnight patches of mist and fog.
“Temperatures are likely to be above average for many, especially so in the south where some unusually warm temperatures for October are possible.
“These temperatures are likely to trend downward toward middle of the month, with the northwest-southeast split also slowly becoming less distinct as the weather becomes generally more changeable.”